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In recent years, the pursuit of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a form of AI with human-like understanding and capabilities, has become a frontier that many in the technological arena are striving to conquer.

OpenAI leaded by Sam Altman prepared an unspecific “timeline for AGI” in early 2023, also Google AI Chief, Shane Legg said he thinks “it's entirely plausible” to hit AGI in 2028, but I still think we need more open discussions what we would need to achieve first, and what concrete steps are ahead us!

The timeline for achieving AGI is hard to predict. I personally think that the year 2035 might be a turning point. The roadmap to AGI is laden with challenges and milestones that span across various dimensions of intelligence.

This article explores the steps envisaged towards realizing AGI and the transformations it is expected to bring to our daily lives.

Steps to Artificial General Intelligence

The journey towards AGI requires a multi-faceted approach, addressing different dimensions of human intelligence. Here's a breakdown of crucial steps envisioned in the progression to AGI:

  1. Emotional Awareness in Conversations: Emotional intelligence is the cornerstone of meaningful interactions. Future AI must comprehend and respond to human emotions effectively to foster a deeper connection.
  2. Complete Multi-modal Answers: Evolving from text-based responses to creating images and videos as answers enriches the interaction and understanding between humans and AI.
  3. Time Awareness: Understanding the concept of time and its implications is crucial for AGI to interact and reason like a human.
  4. State Awareness: Recognizing the individual it's interacting with and tailoring responses accordingly reflects a higher level of understanding akin to human interaction.
  5. Universal Value Model: Incorporating a unified value system, such as outlined in the book 93 Laws of Robotics, is a stepping stone towards ensuring ethical conduct by AGI.
  6. Motivational Algorithm: Discovering what motivates individuals and using it to foster meaningful interactions will be a hallmark of AGI.
  7. Reinforced learning: Learning should be real time, unlike LLM, which have a core training session at the beginning, and maybe fine tuning later. The difference here that the AI should differentiate useful and not-useful learning data from each other, based on events and knowledge validation.
  8. Understanding Space and Physical Realm: Grasping the concept of space and how entities change position over time is essential for real-world navigation and interaction.
  9. Conceptual Thinking: The ability to think abstractly and conceptually is a key facet of human intelligence that AGI must emulate.
  10. Fact Analysis: Distinguishing between reality and misinformation, evaluating possibilities, and reality-checking are critical for reliable and trustworthy AI operation.

AGI Claims

Reuters published information about OpenAI's project “Q*” pronounced as Q-Star, a potential breakthrough in the search for artificial general intelligence (AGI). Some community members express skepticism about the reported AGI breakthrough and the need for aggressive validation in AI research.

The Physical Embodiment of AGI

AGI transcends the traditional chatbot framework to embody a physical, moving entity capable of navigating and interacting with the physical world. This physicality enables a closer bond between AGI and humans, paving the way for more personal and enriched interactions.

However many researchers would argue with my above argument, because intelligence doesn't necessary requires physical form.

They argue that intelligence, particularly at a general or human-like level, doesn't necessarily require a physical form. Intelligence, as they suggest, can be fully realized and manifested in non-physical, digital realms.

Indeed, the essence of AGI is its cognitive prowess, not its physical embodiment. This argument posits that the true mark of AGI lies in its ability to think, learn, adapt, and understand at levels comparable to or surpassing human capabilities, regardless of whether it has a physical form.

Moreover, the pursuit of embedding AGI within a physical entity presents unique challenges. It demands a fusion of advanced robotics with AGI, intertwining disciplines that are complex in their own right. Ensuring that AGI in a physical form can navigate and interact with the unpredictable and diverse real world raises questions about cost, ethical considerations, and the potential risks associated with such powerful technology.

Nonetheless, the physical embodiment of AGI does offer compelling advantages. It could lead to more natural and intuitive interactions with humans, bridging the gap between digital intelligence and the physical world. This could be especially beneficial in areas such as caregiving, where physical presence plays a crucial role.

AGI: A Companion for All

The notion of AGI as a personal companion is a compelling vision for the future. Legal mandates might even stipulate the provision of a personal AGI companion for every individual, ensuring a level of personalized interaction and support. The knowledge and experiences shared with AGI would be safeguarded meticulously, accessible only by the designated individual to prevent misuse or unauthorized access.

Based on my personal opinion, the concept of AGI as a personal companion for every individual holds tremendous promise for the future. I think that this form of companionship could revolutionize how we interact with technology and each other. Imagine a world where every person has access to an AGI companion, uniquely tailored to their needs and preferences.

In this vision, legal mandates might stipulate the provision of a personal AGI companion for every individual. I believe this could be a transformative step towards inclusivity and personalized support. These companions would not just be technological tools but integral parts of our daily lives, offering emotional support, intellectual engagement, and practical assistance.

Recognizing the Dawn of AGI

The emergence of AGI will likely be a gradual process rather than a singular event, we would basically realize it happened after years. A distinguishing characteristic of AGI is its ability to solve novel problems, untrained for, using accrued experiences.

Unlike current AI iterations like ChatGPT, AGI will not only solve problems but also embody them in a tangible format, test, and iterate solutions in real-world environments.

Divergent Thoughts on AGI

Various thought leaders in the AI domain offer unique perspectives on the trajectory towards AGI.

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (AI expert and author)

Dr. Lee often emphasizes the pragmatic aspects of AI development. In his view, “AGI remains a goal more theoretical than practical at the moment. The real value lies in specialized AI that addresses specific tasks extraordinarily well.” This perspective underlines the current focus on Narrow AI and its vast potential before AGI becomes a reality.

Elon Musk (CEO of Tesla, X and SpaceX)

Musk has expressed both fascination and caution regarding AGI. He once stated,

We are headed toward a future where AI exceeds human intelligence, but it is crucial to implement robust safety measures. AGI can be the best or worst thing ever for humanity, depending on how it’s used.

Stuart Russell (AI researcher and Professor)

Prof. Russell often talks about the ethical implications of AGI.

The primary goal in developing AGI should not be just intelligence, but aligning its goals with human values. Without this, AGI poses significant risks.

Dr. Fei-Fei Li (AI scientist)

Dr. Li has stressed the importance of diversity in AI.

As we move towards AGI, it’s critical to remember that AI must represent the diverse fabric of humanity. Diverse perspectives in AI development lead to more robust, ethical, and effective systems.

Ginni Rometty (Former CEO of IBM)

Rometty's insights often revolve around the impact of AI on jobs.

AGI will transform the job market, but it doesn’t mean the obliteration of jobs. It means the transformation of what a job is. It's about co-working with AI and focusing on what humans do best.

Ray Kurzweil (Futurist and author)

Known for his optimistic predictions about AI, Kurzweil has a unique take on AGI.

We are on the verge of merging with our technology. AGI will not only augment our abilities but eventually will merge with us, enhancing our cognitive capacities and extending our creativity.

Final Thoughts on When We Will get to AGI

The pathway to AGI is a compelling narrative filled with both anticipation and profound challenges. As we inch closer to the date of 2035, the realm of AI continues to burgeon with possibilities, inching us closer to a future where AGI might become an integral part of our daily lives.

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